The San Diego Padres added another big name to their roster this offseason as they signed 33 year-old James Shields to a 4-year contract worth $75 million, with a 5th year option that includes a buyout.
During the Winter Meetings, new General Manager A.J. Preller acquired Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Wil Myers to remake a woeful outfield. They also traded with the Oakland Athletic's to get catcher Derek Norris. In turn, Preller gave the Padres a healthy dose of star power and the signing of Shields will undoubtedly add more.
While the Padres will be exponentially more interesting in 2015 than 2014, the bottom line will be just how many more wins they can add to a 77-85 team.
Justin Upton has been a solid player for multiple years and, despite playing in Petco's gigantic park, could take a step forward in his age 27 season. Upton, however, has holes defensively that will not suite him playing in that vast outfield.
Despite the tear that Matt Kemp was on at the end of last season, his best days are behind him. The trade with the Dodgers almost didn't go through due to his arthritic hips and bad knees. In large part due to injuries, Kemp is an atrocious defensive player. As Mark Simon notes, Kemp's defensive runs saved is at the very bottom of the league. The Dodgers even tried to move Yasiel Puig to centerfield with Kemp shifting to right in an attempt to cover Kemp's deficiencies.
Wil Myers, who was once a big time prospect with the Royals, will come to San Diego in an attempt to kickstart his career. Acquiring Derek Norris from the A's was a nice move that should pay off well. Norris is only 25 and is coming off a 10 homerun season with only 385 at-bats. Norris also had a solid .361 OBP.
Shields comes out to sunny San Diego after helping the Kansas City Royals get to their first World Series since 1985. As noted previously, Shields is now 33 years old and most certainly won't be worth his contract at the age of 37. On fangraphs.com, Shields pitch velocities follow a very odd career path.
4 seam fastball:
2011: 90.9
2014: 92.5
Difference: +1.6
2 seam fastball:
2011: 91.0
2014: 92.1
Difference: +1.1
Cutter:
2012: 90.7
2014: 86.4
Difference: -4.3
Changeup:
2011: 83.9
2014: 85.2
Difference: +1.3
Obviously, pitch velocity is not the only thing that makes a pitcher effective, but most don't add velocity as they get older. Perhaps Kansas City helped fix his mechanics once he arrived there, but whatever the case, it's something to keep an eye on.
One thing that the Padres do get in Shields is durability, which can be underrated and taken for granted. Shields has crossed the 200 inning threshold for eight consecutive years. While I'm not a fan of the signing, the Padres should get a quality pitcher that can man their rotation in the twilight years of his career -- and that's worth something.