The Kentucky Wildcats are now 28-0, with just three games remaining in the regular season (vs. #18 Ark, @UGA, vs. FLA). Of their remaining games obviously Arkansas is probably the best team. The Razorbacks are second in the SEC, only trailing Kentucky. Georgia has a good team and it will a tough test to the Bulldogs on the road. So the question remains: who can beat the Wildcats? Before we look at who, though, we need to look at how. So, how do you beat Kentucky?
The answer is simple in theory: to beat Kentucky someone needs to play the perfect game. The Wildcats have very few weaknesses that can be attacked. They are very long and have size in the front court that NBA teams envy.
To challenge Kentucky a team needs to have big guys that challenge the UK bigs. Willie Cauley-Stein and Dakari Johnson are both 7-footers and Karl-Anthony Towns, who is quite possibly the best of the trio and a potential top five pick in the draft, is 6’11”.
There is no better example of the need to try to match the post play then their game against LSU. In one of the few games this season that Kentucky has truly been challenged, LSU got a combined 37 points and 18 rebounds from their starting front court. 21 points and 11 rebounds from Jarell Martin and 16 points, 7 rebounds and 4 blocks from Jordan Mickey. However, this not to suggest a team can’t challenge the ‘Cats with shooting and guard play. In Kentucky’s overtime win over Ole Miss earlier this season the Rebels made 9 of 17 3’s and had their 3 starting guards combined for 63 of their 86 points.
Kentucky, who is beating teams by an average of 22 points this season, doesn’t seem to have an obvious weakness. The Wildcats boast practically unheard of balance offensively with nine guys averaging over five points per game and no one averaging more than 11. Technically eight players since Alex Poythress is injured and done for the year. Kentucky has much more than just guys who are 6’11”+ and oozing with NBA potential. The Harrison twins, Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis give them a very talented backcourt as well.
Now, on to the big question, who can beat Kentucky?
Virginia: The Cavaliers have a defense that has held opponents under 40 points six different times and under 50 points 13 times this season on their way to only allowing 49.9 PPG as a team. They certainly have the system and formula, but the biggest question for UVA is whether or not they have enough talent to beat Kentucky. Malcolm Brogdon and Justin Anderson average a combined 26.9 PPG from the backcourt and Anthony Gill averages 11 points and 7 rebounds per game. Mike Tobey, at 6’11,” is the Cavs only player that can match Kentucky’s height.
Certainly the nation’s top defense could cause problems for Kentucky and if they get a big game out of either Brogdon or Anderson, the Cavs have what it takes to beat Kentucky.
Wisconsin: The Badgers are one of the nation’s elite teams. With a combination of stifling defense and very efficient offense, the Badgers absolutey have what it takes to put together the perfect game and take down Kentucky. Frank Kaminsky has both the size and talent to match up well with Kentucky, the All-American averages 18 points and 8 rebounds per game while also shooting 40% beyond the arc. Kaminsky would be key in a Badgers win, but it would also require a great game from the Badgers' other players.
Sam Dekker, Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes, along with Josh Gasser, are all players with the ability to make 3’s and to have a big game in a win over Kentucky.
Duke: The Blue Devils are outstanding offensively, not so outstanding defensively. With Jahlil Okafor, the likely number one pick in the draft, Duke has the post presence needed to match up with Kentucky. It would be a big advantage for Duke to have the best player on the floor, but the problem with that is that Duke can’t match the depth Kentucky can run out in any game. The Devils rank No. 165 in the country in points allowed per game which is a very average defense, ranked right in the middle of the country.
They do have that combination of post play and guard play that is needed. Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook combine for 27 PPG and both shoot very well from beyond the arc. It’s worth noting that Justice Winslow is also an outstanding defender, a long, athletic player who can cause Kentucky some problems. Winslow, along with Cook and Jones give Kentucky three guys who shoot 38% or higher from the 3 point range.
Gonzaga: Yes, I am including the Zags. The argument can always be made for a team like Gonzaga that they don’t play tough competition and they don’t get challenged enough to even deserve the attention they get. Well it’s a small sample size, but they beat likely tournament teams SMU by 16, St. John’s by seven, UCLA by 13 and UGA by 12. Their only loss is by three in overtime at Arizona, who is a potential 1 or 2 seed.
Gonzaga can match the size of UK with 7’1” Przemek Karnowski and 6’10” Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer. As a team, they shoot over 40% behind the arc with Kyle Wiltjer and Kevin Pangos both shooting 46%. They can match the balance with seven guys averaging five or more PPG and four guys averaging double-digits. Not to mention what a story it would be for Kyle Wiltjer to hand his former team their first loss of the season and end it as well.
Stay tuned because once March Madness starts, anything can happen.