2015 Fantasy Baseball Preview
- Mar 3, 2015
- 4 min read
Spring Training has officially begun for all 30 clubs and that provides us a chance to evaluate which players joined new teams, which young players are ready to take a step forward and those that you should avoid, or temper expectations, for this upcoming fantasy baseball season.
Marcell Ozuna:
Ozuna was signed by the Marlins as an international free-agent back in 2008, three years before they became the Miami Marlins rather than Florida Marlins, and has streadily risen through their system.
Following the 2012 season, Ozuna was ranked as the No. 75 prospect by Baseball America and was viewed as a five-tool player with his power being his best trait. In that 2012 season, he was with their Class A affiliate and became a major leaguer in 2013. Not only was he called up in 2013, but Ozuna hasn't looked back and hasn't been sent back down.
Last season Ozuna, who just 24 years old this past November, compiled the quietest 23 home run, 85 RBI season in a pitcher's park in baseball history. While his 2014 season was very productive, there are many analytics that show he plenty of room for further development.
A comparison for Ozuna's development is none other than teammate Giancarlo Stanton. Here's a simple layout to highlight the analytics behind Ozuna's rise.
Strikeout rate:
-Ozuna: 93rd percentile (higher than 92 percent of major leaguers.)
-Stanton: Posted a mark lower than 93 for the first time his career in 2014 and it was still 91.
Walk rate:
-Ozuna: Only in the 42nd percentile, which is low for power hitters.
-Stanton: His walk rate was 52 in 2010 and in 2014 his walk rate was 97.
Popup rate:
-Ozuna: Like golf, the lower the percentile, the better. Ozuna is at 52.
-Stanton: His career low is 71.
Fly ball rate:
-Ozuna: This rate is the opposite of golf: higher is better. Despite hitting 23 home runs last season, his rate was only 28.
-Stanton: His rate was 26 in 2013 and 44 in 2014.
Another mark of a good hitter is his ability to hit to the opposite side of the field with the same power. More than a quarter of Ozuna's 2014 home runs were to the opposite field.
Ozuna's own development, along with the additions that Marlins made in the offseason (Dee Gordon, Michael Morse, Martin Prado), has Ozuna set to have a big 2015 season.
Rick Porcello:
Porcello is only 26 years old and has already pitched 1071.1 innings. In addition to the innings, he has won double-digit games every single season and lowered his WHIP every year. He also set career bests in ERA (3.43), innings (204.2) and wins (15)
Porcello was traded to the Boston Red Sox this off-season after spending the first six years of his career with the Detroit Tigers. He's a groundball pitcher which will work in his favor pitching in Fenway Park, but beyond the stadium that he will make a majority of his starts, Porcello is due for a breakout season.
As I read in a Boston Globe article, they dug into the analytics of what could lead to Porcello having a breakout season.
Of the 38 pitchers who have thrown at least 800 innings by age 25 without an "ace" season (ERA+ of 125 or better), 16 percent went on to have an "ace" season at the age of 26.
Porcello has six seasons of experience, has continually improved from season to season, and is still set to reach his prime in 2015. You'll want to have Porcello on your roster and enjoy the ride.
Aaron Sanchez:
The 6'4" right hander has been ranked as the Blue Jays top prospect by multiple scouting outlets including Baseball America and FanGraphs. He was drafted by the club in the first round of the 2010 draft.
Sanchez, who is only 22 years old, hits 93-95 MPH with his fastball regularly and has a solid changeup and curveball. He began the 2014 season with AA New Hampshire, moved up to AAA Buffalo and eventually got called up in September.
The knock on Sanchez is he doesn't have good control and his changeup isn't polished yet, but that could be said about nearly every pitcher. However, once he got to the big leagues, the Blue Jays moved him to the bullpen and he was lights out.
In 33 innings, his WHIP was only .697 with a K/9 of 7.4, an ERA of 1.09 and only allowed 14 hits.
The only question for Sanchez is how the Blue Jays will use him going forward. They've got questions as to who their closer will be, and they've seriously considered Sanchez, but he was drafted and pitched as a starter in the minors.
The only other potential downside to Sanchez in 2015 is the amount of innings that he will pitch. He pitched a cumulative 133 innings and is expected to see a 20 percent increase which is 159.6 innings, which is less than a full season. If he's used as their closer though, the amount of innings won't be a problem for him.
Regardless of how he is used, Sanchez is going to be a very effective pitcher this upcoming season.
Others of note:
-Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets: 2.71 ERA in final 16 starts of the season and he's only 24.
-Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Yankees: Pitched 200 innings last season and still has a 100 MPH fastball.
-George Springer, OF, Astros: Had 20 home runs and 5 steals in only 295 at-bats last season.
-Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox: In a star-studded Red Sox lineup and it's his second full season.
-Travis d'Arnaud, C, Mets: After his demotion mid-season, he came back and hit .278 and 10 home runs.
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