Selection Sunday has come and gone, March madness is officially here. Millions if not billions of brackets will be filled out. So whether you do it for fun in an office pool or you agonize over it and watch every game possible during champ week, as I do, and over analyze every matchup. Here’s some helpful advice for all of you filling out your brackets. First things first, it’s called March madness for a reason! Over the next few weeks madness will ensue, this means lower seeded teams will win games so don’t be afraid to have lower seeds winning a game if not a few games. The hardest part about picking lower seeded teams is picking correctly which ones will pull the upsets. I don’t really have advice on how to know which lower seeded teams will win. I just promise you that they will hold their own. Continuing with the lower seeded theme let’s look at the fact that lower seed does not automatically mean underdog. Consider that in recent years a 12 over a 5 is not upset, in fact a very even game and likely a toss-up. The 6 vs 11 is another game where you should not automatically go chalk as it every bit as likely the 11 seed will win. Heck, in recent history even a 15 seed beating a 2 seed has become somewhat expected. Eventually a #1 will lose but don’t count on it as it has never before happened.
Here’s another key word of advice pick Georgetown at your own risk, always a high and likely bust your bracket recent history suggests they are far from a sure thing. The Hoya lost to FGCU as a 2 seed in 2013 and lost to Ohio U as a 4 seed in 2010 (Georgetown is again a 4 seed, take note).
So here is a breakdown of top seeds records in the first round:
1 vs 16
We start at the top where 1 seeds hold a perfect 120-0 record in the first round! Not much to say here, it is expected.
2 vs 15
15 seeds have won only 7 times over a 2 seed, with 3 of those wins coming since 2012. Most notably is Florida Gulf Coast who beat 2 seed Georgetown in 2013 and went on to the Sweet 16.
Another very notable year, 2012, had Lehigh beat Duke, and Norfolk State drop Missouri. Prior to that it had not happened since 2001.
3 vs 14
3 seeds hold a 102-18 advantage in this match up, but beware slightly more than half of the
tournaments in the last 30 years have featured a 14 seed upsetting a 3, Amazing, I know.
4 vs 13
As expected we get a little more even as we continue through the bracket, 4 seeds are 95-25 all time. Last year saw the first time since 2007 where no 13 seed pulled the upset, let me say that again, other than last year, every tournament since 2007 has seen a 13 seed win.
5 vs 12
The last 3 years 12 seeds are 8-4 in the first, more than enough to raise some eyebrows, this is a classic game in which you would be smart to ignore the seeding and take a lower seeds if you love chaos. While all-time 5 seeds win 63% of the time recent history is not nearly as inviting for the higher seeds.
6 vs 11
While 6 seeds actually fair slightly better than 5 seeds in the first round in the last decade two 11 seeds have made final 4 runs, VCU in 2011 and George Mason in 2006. Could it happen this year, you decide?
7 vs 10
While this matchup is barely an upset with both 7 and 10 seeds often being able to make sweet 16 runs, it is worth noting that the lower 10 seeds historically in the first rounds have about as much success as the 12 seeds do.
8 vs 9
Finally, the classic 8 vs 9 matchup. With the 8/9 matchup it is literally a tossup, most of the time with theseseeds an 8 and 9 are interchangeable and are lucky enough to get a top seed in the 2nd round. 9 seedshold the all-time advantage a whopping 61-59 in 120 games.
Final piece of advice, no one has ever had a perfect bracket. So there you won’t get it perfect, don’t stress about it if after the first round your bracket is shot because half of the world is right there with you. Now that you know you won’t be perfect the pressure is and don’t be afraid to be bold with your picks.